讲座题目：What Determines China's Housing Price Dynamics? New Evidence from a DSGE-VAR

　　报告人：Zhirong Ou(英国卡迪夫商学院，助理教授)

　　报告时间：2017年4月25日(周二)下午1:30-3:00

　　报告地点：经管院B131

　　主办单位：数理经济与数理金融系，主持人：崔静波

　　摘要:We investigate what determines China's housing price dynamics using a DSGE-VAR estimated with priors allowing for the featured operating of normal and `shadow' banks in China, with data observed between 2000 and 2014. We find that near 80% of the housing price fluctuation can be explained by the housing demand shock, which is also found to be the essential factor for housing price `bubbles' to happen. We also find that a prosperous housing market could have implied future economic growth, but empirically the marginal impact is small. But this also means that, for policy-makers who wish to stabilise the housing market, the cost on output reduction would be quite limited.

　　简介:Ou Zhirong博士，毕业于英国卡迪夫商学院(Cardiff Business School),获得经济学博士，先任职于卡迪夫商学院，助理教授。研究方向：宏观经济学。研究成果已发表在经济学国际学术期刊Economic Modeling (SSCI)等。